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The 2021 FIM Supersport 300 World Championship is at its first match-point of the season as the class heads to the Circuito de Jerez – Angel Nieto in Andalusia, Spain. After 12 races so far, Adrian Huertas (MTM Kawasaki) is the one who is staring down the barrel of his first World Championship and with main title rival Tom Booth-Amos (Fusport – RT Motorsports by SKM – Kawasaki) yet to be declared fit after his injuries in Catalunya’s Race 1, it is highly possible that Huertas could take the title. However, this is WorldSSP300, so nothing is ever guaranteed, and it could easily roll to the final round of the season at Portimao.

PERMUTATIONS: calculators at the ready…

It’s been a stunning season for Adrian Huertas, the Spaniard leading the Championship standings comfortably and with a 43-point lead. He’s the only rider in WorldSSP300 history to have won five races in a season and has helped Kawasaki to a fourth Manufacturers’ title in the class in five years. Now, he could be Spain’s fourth Champion in WorldSSP300, however, if Tom Booth-Amos is declared fit ahead of action commencing, then the title will not be won on Saturday, as Huertas would need to sport a 75-point lead. However, if Booth-Amos is unfit, then although he could mathematically still take the title, he realistically wouldn’t be able to if Huertas leads by 50 points coming out of Saturday, as there’s nothing he can do to combat the deficit by being side-lined.

OUTSIDERS: mathematical chances, but chances nonetheless

Then, there’s third-placed Jeffrey Buis (MTM Kawasaki), who could still mathematically win the title but must be inside the top three in the opening race to guarantee himself a chance of retaining his title, regardless of Huertas’ result. He is currently 65 points behind, meaning that he can’t give up more than ten points to teammate Huertas in Race 1. In fourth place, Samuel Di Sora (Leader Team Flembbo) maintains a mathematical chance but is 88 points back, meaning that he must be in the top three and outscore Huertas by 14 points. The Champion can only be one of the four riders in the top four placings in the Championship, and it is likely to be one of the top two – even more likely to be Huertas if Booth-Amos is declared unfit. Simply, regardless of anything else, if Huertas has a 50-point lead over Booth-Amos or a 51-point lead over Jeffrey Buis (MTM Kawasaki) – although 50 will be enough if Buis doesn’t win either race – at the end of Sunday, he’s Champion.

TOP 5 BATTLE: 18 points cover four riders

The battle for the top five is intense, with fifth place in the Championship currently occupied by Japan’s Yuta Okaya (MTM Kawasaki), who is on a run of three top eight finishers. He is just ten points clear of 2021’s latest race winner and Jerez 2020 winner Bahattin Sofuoglu (Biblion Yamaha Motoxracing), with 45 of the Turk’s 77 points of 2021 coming last time out. Looking for three straight podiums, he’s the man of the moment and is hoping to put together a late run to the snatch a spot in the leading places after a tricky and partially luckless season. No points scored for Victor Steeman (Freudenberg KTM WorldSSP Team) in Barcelona sees him drop to seventh in the standings, three points behind Sofuoglu and 13 back of Okaya. Brazil’s Meikon Kawakami (Team AD78 Brasil by MS Racing) completes the top eight, five points behind a top five place overall. A good battle between the four – who are on Kawasaki, Yamaha and KTM machinery – awaits in Jerez.

BEST OF THE REST: who else could play a key part?

Hugo De Cancellis (Prodina Team WorldSSP300) was unlucky in Barcelona as he was ruled out of action following a Free Practice crash and will have his participation status confirmed on Thursday at Jerez. Tenth overall belongs to Koen Meuffels (MTM Kawasaki), who only scored three points in Barcelona. Just a point splits both riders, Meuffels being 26 back of a top five place held by Okaya. However, both will have to watch out behind them as Ton Kawakami (Team AD78 Brasil by MS Racing) took his first podium last time out at Catalunya as he hopes to put in a good final push at the end of the season. Alejandro Carrion (Kawasaki GP Project) is another rider who will hope to break into the top ten, having had a double top ten finish last time out.

DARK HORSES: who could battle in the leading group at a canter in Jerez?

Despite bad form at the moment, Ana Carrasco (Kawasaki Provec WorldSSP300) can never be discounted as the 2018 World Champion took three podiums in her last four races at Jerez. On top of that, pole-sitter from Catalunya Inigo Iglesias (SMW Racing) could well be one to keep an eye on as he goes for a first podium, whereas Oliver Konig (Accolade Smrz Racing) has been a podium finisher in 2021 back at Most and hopes to rekindle those memories. Perhaps one of the most intriguing and exciting prospects is that of Alvaro Diaz Cebrian (Arco-Motor University Team), who burst onto the WorldSSP300 scene with a fifth and second – losing out on a Race 2 win by 0.003s, the closest finish in the class’ history. Daniel Mogeda (Team#109 Kawasaki) has been strong lately with frequent top ten pace and Dean Berta Viñales’ (Viñales Racing Team) quest for a first podium continues with two top six results in three races.

Get the FREE Official Programme for the Motul Spanish Round here! WorldSSP300 Free Practice fires into life at Jerez at 09:45 local time (GMT+2) and you can watch the full weekend with the WorldSBK VideoPass!